Who Will Win the Shutdown

Rafael Berti

The historically longest shutdown of the U.S. federal government is entering its second month, and along with it rise the stakes placed back both the Democrats and the GOP. While the shutdown affects payouts for some 800 000 federal employees, among them institutions vitally important for interstate travel within the U.S. (such as the TSA) and civil proceedings (marriages, building permits etc.), the real battle is turning out on the TV screens of average, widely unaffected Americans cheering for either side. 800 000 is not much by U.S. standards, where the working population amounts up to 280 mil. employed workers. It is the care and respect that Dems and the GOP will amass through, and from the affected citizens, and whether they will capitalize on their gains across the country. 

Democrats were quick to react, as Congress members along with senators gave up their pay, and handed out free meals and neccessities in their respective offices. Opinions of federal employees voicing their disregarding opinions became a common sight on internationally operating U.S. TV channels, giving the Dems additional leverage against President Trump. A recent poll by AP revealed, that only 33%, identifying as Republicans, regarded the shutdown as a major problem. While this can certainly help strengthen Trump's position to solidify his approval rating enough, not to fall beyond 30%, it may not be enough to convince independent and Democrat-identifying voters. 

Even though C-Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) made several mistakes since the shutdown, the biggest of which was rejecting one of Trumps proposals minutes before he published it. Supporters of Pelosi, however, who seems to be taking a prominent role as the Dems' primary figure leading the battle against Trump, appear to be more forgiving. The increasingly personal stand-off now entered a new stage, with Pelosi refusing Trumps request to present his State of the Union speech in Congress as usual, and Trump declaring he will instead deliver his speech elsewhere, ending a decade-long tradition of delivering the State of the Union in front of Congress members and senators alike.

The conclusion to the fight is obvious. No funding will be approved for a wall, whether concrete or steel, so the key bargaining point for the Republicans in Congress and Senate is drafting a funding plan, that will not explicitly use money to build one, while satisfying Trump with a partial use of the funding to build "barriers" along with increasing the Border guard's effectiveness and upgrading their equipment. Democrats will see their mission to prevent a wall from being built as accomplished, and Trump will partially save his face, even though it is most likely impossible to revert the damages at this point.